With Hosni Mubarak having now stepped down as president of Egypt and handed control of the Republic to the Higher Military Council, the first step to a peaceful democratic transition has now hopefully been made. In this context, some argue that the situation in Egypt is following the Portuguese path : there are similarities in the present situation to the Portuguese revolution of 22 April 1974, when a military junta took power and sent the leaders of the old regime into exile. Others consider the situation closer to the transition process in Brazil, when the military in power was forced to accept a transition to civilian democratic rule as a result of pressure from popular demonstrations.
A situation similar to what was seen in Portugal in 1974 or Brazil in 1985 is the most likely scenario, but this means the transition from military rule to a civilian-run democracy is now the crucial next step. But we must bear in mind that the situation in Egypt was closer to the dictatorships we saw in Brazil and Argentina than it was to those in Portugal or Tunisia. In these countries, the militaries had numerous grievances with those in political power.
The international community must now support the Egyptians’ demand to end the state of emergency in the country, support a clear timetable for the handover to a civilian government, support the organisation of free and fair elections, and actively work to prevent the worst case scenario : military resistance by force to restore civilian order.
