Sur l’impact de la crise dans les pays émergents
Growth in developing economies has slowed but not so much as in advanced countries. On the other hand, inflation remains more of a problem in emerging market countries. In general, the direction (referring to slowdown in growth) will be the same but the magnitude is vastly different. Developing countries are still expected to drive the growth in the global economy.
There are two ways by which the current crisis can affect : trade and capital accounts. Emerging economies will increasingly find it difficult to access finance with general shortage of credit. Also, there is a general re-pricing of risk in the wake of what happened, so the cost of borrowing will remain high even after liquidity in the market eases. We have seen this repricing of risk also for the corporate debt market in the advanced economies.
On the trade side, economies that depend on exports will be most impacted. This is especially true for commodity exporters as commodity prices have already softened in the last few months. On the positive side, this will, however, help reduce inflation. But, it is still a wait and watch situation as to how these developments would impact the developing world, where inflation remains a problem.
L’Inde, relativement protégée
For India, the impact on the real economy and financing impact will be lower than for countries that rely more on exports for their growth or have larger financing needs. India is also in a good situation because it has built up reserves.
Things have got bad in the external environment but looking forward real fundamentals for India have not changed. Emerging markets growth will be much higher than developed markets and India will remain among the faster growing countries even among emerging markets. Three things that are positive for India- strong domestic market demand, decline in commodity prices and a profitable corporate sector. These will better help the real sector to withstand the shock
