The competition for power among different interest groups, the lack of reforms, corruption and the question of Abkhaz citizenship for Gali Georgians continue to polarise the Abkhaz community. Russian influence has been increasing immensely since the August war and the subsequent recognition of Abkhazia by Moscow. At the same time, it is unlikely that Russia will directly interfere with the elections as all the presidential candidates advocate a close strategic partnership with Russia.
Relations between Georgia and Abkhazia have remained tense since the 2008 conflict. While any viable solution to the conflict is not foreseeable in the short-term, according to Fischer there is a role for the EU as part of international mediation efforts. It is crucial that political dialogue, not isolation, remains the basis for engagement with the parties and that it is sustained in the long-term, leaving the door open to future developments.
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