Une démarche prudente de la part de la Chine
Gonzalo Paz said that China has engaged Latin America in order to maintain the flow of raw materials needed to keep its economy growing, but at the same time it has sought to avoid creating the impression that it has a strategic aim vis-à-vis the United States in the region.
So far China has been successful in engaging Latin America, expanding bilateral relations, exhibiting growing trading trends (over $100 billion in 2008), and acquiring membership into established institutions that regulate relations in the hemisphere like the Organization of American States and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). Furthermore, China has also demonstrated prudence in its interactions with nations, such as Venezuela, trying to mitigate any perception of confrontation with the United States.
Sortir du "pré carré américain"
David Shambaugh noted that China’s relations to Latin America are geographically and functionally comprehensive, citing strategic partnerships throughout the Caribbean and South America at economic, political, diplomatic and multilateral levels. China has demonstrated a high level of capacity in their engagement with the region, commanding language skills and cultural knowledge. Its entry into the region has been facilitated by a post-hegemonic era in which Latin America has sought diversification in its international relations, claiming it is “no longer America’s backyard.”
China’s strategies, interests and policies in the region are “not nefarious, clandestine, or negative in nature,” Shambaugh said. Nonetheless, he held that a “real mismatch” exists between Chinese capacity and understanding of Latin America and Latin America’s general lack of capacity toward China. This disparity could pose a disadvantage for Latin American nations in their respective negotiations and agreements with the Chinese. Latin America is faced with both a tremendous opportunity and challenge to build greater competence.
Un "puzzle" multipolaire
Evan Ellis pointed out that China is only one among many nations that have become increasingly involved in Latin America and the Caribbean. The growing influence of India, Iran, Russia, and Europe in the region results in a “complicated puzzle” of multi-political diplomacy. China’s relations with other major players in the region will serve as a test of their diplomatic savvy in the years to come.
China’s recent acceptance into the IADB, joining two other Asian nations, is an important signal that China intends to remain a major stakeholder in the long run, Ellis said. Compared to other member nations, China’s $350 million contribution grants them very small representation, but their added voice serves two goals. China gains a seat at the table in Latin America, reflecting its economic interests and it gains the ability to participate in IADB’s expansion of new loan projects. Participation in these new projects, especially as related to infrastructure, will allow China to put more emphasis on its diplomacy among Central American and Caribbean States that currently have diplomatic ties to Taiwan.
La Chine, un relais de croissance pour l’Amérique latine
The current financial crisis poses potential challenges in the politics of the relationship between China and Latin American. Ellis suggests that the interaction of falling commodity prices, decreasing values of Latin American exports, and China’s decrease in purchases will leave Latin America at the “tail end of the whip saw”. Yet these difficulties are counterbalanced by the fact that as Latin America’s sources of investment funding soften (primarily from the U.S.), they will be looking to China and other Asian nations to fulfill their economic promises.
The panelists agreed that though the present administration of the United States has scored points in its Sino-American policies, the new administration will face the immense task of reestablishing the United States’ goodwill in Latin America.
